5. An idea for breaking free of the fate of a “leek”…

Everyone has to clearly explain their own bitter experiences to themselves — not an explanation for others, but an explanation for themselves. This is why people often “demand an explanation”. If they can’t explain their bitter experiences to themselves, it’s very, very uncomfortable.

In a hospital, everyone who contracts a terminal illness must go through a painful period of “self-explanation”. “Why am I the one who got sick?!” This is an incredibly painful and uncomfortable self-interrogation. Maybe it’s clearly just a matter of chance, but “Why me?” reflects the unwillingness to accept of every unfortunate one.

In middle school, you may have observed this phenomenon. There are some ugly girls in class, and their explanation for “having never received any love letter” is this: “I’m not that type of person! Not like those vixens…” Observers see things for what they are, but these people still are confident in their own explanation. However, while it does make them feel good, are there really no side effects to this kind of explanation? In fact, there are many, many side effects. For instance, aside from making them inauthentic, in order to make this twisted explanation stand up, they will not hesitate to use any means to torment and frame those whom they call “vixens”. Even though those “vixens” made no mistake other than being pretty… Of course, even worse — and maybe they never know it — is that it is exactly their actual twistedness that will ensure that the partner they find in the future is also twisted.

What is the greatest common understanding of “leeks”?

According to my observations, all leeks endorse an idea that is actually mistaken:

So-called trading is a “zero-sum game”.

That is to say, they believe that the money they earned is money lost by others. Or, in other words, any amount of money that they lose has definitely been earned by someone else.

This is very contradictory. When these “leeks” are angrily denouncing “the cutters of leeks”, what is the basic thing that they are angry about? It seems as if what they really hate isn’t the “cutting of leeks” that they speak of; what they really hate, logically, can only be “why am I not the one cutting leeks?!” If they had a chance to “cut leeks”, they wouldn’t think twice, because they have decided that it is a “zero-sum game”. So everyone is a leek, and everyone has the same fate: either be a leek and get cut, or cut the leeks of others…

Where is their mistake?

They completely ignored the greatest force of the market: market cycles, or — to use more common language — alternating bull and bear markets.

In a bull market, most people make money, and the amount lost by a few pales in comparison to the amount made by so many. So which leek was cut? In a bear market, most people lose money, and the amount lost in aggregate by those people is countless times more than the amount made by the few. Who is cutting leeks?

So, this is not at all a “zero-sum game”!

In fact, in the tail end of a bull market, people buy at a price that is fattened by hormones, no matter who they are. In the tail end of a bear market, people buy at a starved price, no matter who they are...

In an open market, no one can point a gun at you and force you to trade, everyone trades by their own will… Then why are people overjoyed when they willingly buy, but later on start to utter cries of anguish? We need an explanation. Yes, we all need to give ourselves a clear explanation, to explain the awkward situations we find ourselves in.

Do you want a correct explanation? Or do you want an explanation that makes you feel good?

A correct explanation will trigger your subsequent correct choices and actions. An explanation that makes you feel good but is definitely wrong, aside from making you briefly feel good, can do nothing but bring about all sorts of “surprising” side effects, because it is bluntly wrong… Which type of explanation do you really want?

The correct explanation is quite simple:

We bought at the wrong time.

In a bull market, everybody is successful, and even the worst target might continue to rise steeply. In a bear market, everyone is oppressed, and sometimes good assets fall even more steeply…

“The wrong timimg” is the most basic, most reasonable, and most instructive correct explanation, and it may even be the only reasonable explanation.

Also, when you’re a little bit more mature, you will understand: in the future, you must not participate in any zero-sum games — they are a bigger waste of time than gambling! (You should know that, in reality, fair gambling actually doesn’t exist. In order to preserve fairness, or, using fairness as a means, all casinos have a house spread…)